There's a new social network in town: Diaspora. And it may
revolutionize social networking by giving each individual complete
control. The founders seem excited about their idea and are very
genuine when explaining why they believe their product is necessary.
But the project is bound to fail and is currently running on hype.
The team does not seem to understand the immense challenges present
with starting a project of this scale. They additionally do not
realize that having attended a University doesn't automatically give
them the skills necessary to execute this project and they also refuse
to face the fundamental flaws in their idea.
Taking an in depth look at Diaspora's video pitches leads me to
question their understanding of the task they're about to undertake.
Their pitch video is endearing because the four founders of Diaspora
are candid and believe in their project. Although it's extremely
obvious that parts of their pitch are scripted, it adds to the
believability of their pitch because they are obviously not actors.
But sometimes it becomes painfully obvious when they aren't acting,
but aren't helping their cause.
Raphael states that we should all trust the Diaspora team because
they're willing to devote three months of their time to the project.
I'm not sure how naive Raphael is, but it will take much longer than
three months of their time to mold Diaspora into a true product. Ilya
seems to have no idea how much work this project will take because he
happily chirps that everyone can be assured they'll succeed. After
all, they're willing to put in up to twelve hours a day. Last time I
checked, twelve hours a day wasn't nearly enough to succeed in a tier
I University, much less topple the most influential startup since
Google. The only person on this team who seems to have any idea what
undertaking this project entails is Dan, who quietly mumbles "I think
it'll be a little more than 12 hours."
There's also the issue that these guys don't have the skills to make
this project happen. In their most recent blog post, they mentioned
that they've been working with Pivotal Labs. From browsing Pivotal's
website, I've found that Pivotal Labs is a company that takes ideas
and implements them. As in every company, Pivotal doesn't work for
free. Thus, the most likely explanation for Diaspora's involvement
with Pivotal is that the Diaspora team has taken the 200k they raised
from Kickstarter and outsourced their coding to Pivotal. This will
definitely help get their product off the ground, but Pivotal won't be
around forever. Does the Diaspora team have the ability to maintain
the code that Pivotal creates? I'm completely unconvinced.
This leads to one of the most dangerous scenarios a startup can have:
four founders who may not be the greatest hackers and are completely
ignorant about where their ability lies coupled with a codebase that
they didn't write. And which dominant company are they trying to
topple? Facebook. A CEO that's proven that he understands technology.
A team where every single engineer is brilliant. A company where every
single person including sales, design, and business employees, can
code. What about Diaspora? I'm not even convinced their founders can
code. How then, can they convince me to trust their code (and I use
the term "their" loosely)?
Finally, the concept behind Diaspora has some fundamental flaws that
doom it to failure. The plan is to release software that will allow
you to create your own node on a server that can connect to other
nodes and grab profile pages from those nodes. Wait though? Doesn't
this sound familiar? A cluster of computers that serve pages and other
computers retrieving pages... This sounds exactly like the Internet!
And just like the Internet, to be a part of Diaspora's social network,
you need to have some knowledge in system administration and own your
own server. If you can't set up a server and administer it yourself,
you can't join in on the fun, and how many people in the general
population really know how or even want to maintain their own server?
But wait! Diaspora's business model handles this. For a fee Diaspora
will lease and administer a server and install a Diaspora node for
you. But how many users are really willing to pay Diaspora to be a
part of their social network. Especially when almost all the
alternatives are free? Yes, you are paying to keep your data safe, so
you are paying for a service. But even that thread of logic quickly
unravels. If you host your information on Diaspora's servers, Diaspora
would then have all YOUR data on THEIR servers. How then is this any
better than just using Facebook? With such inherent flaws in the
project's main goal, its surprising that the project even got any hype
at all.
In short, the Diaspora project has been successful to date only due
to the privacy issues surrounding Facebook, which generated hype. The
majority of its founders have not shown much promise, and the team
itself still hasn't given us anything beyond empty words and an
outsourced project. Sure, they may be able to get by on hype alone.
Sure, they may garner some success. Regardless, in the end, this
project will likely fail. The founders appear to be extremely naive,
the team fails to show that they have the competence to write
trustworthy code, and the idea is fatally flawed. All in all, the
seeds of Diaspora will never spread beyond the bubble of its current
fans who refuse to see logic because they have been blinded by hope.